As the state of Texas prepares for an imminent polar plunge this weekend, officials at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) have heightened concerns, indicating the possibility of blackouts on Monday due to the tightest energy capacity and demand.
Forecasts indicate that temperatures across the state will plummet into the teens or single digits on Monday and Tuesday, with wind chills potentially reaching below zero in the northernmost regions. Alongside the frigid temperatures, light wintry precipitation is expected for a substantial portion of Texas late Sunday into Monday.
These severe weather conditions are anticipated to drive energy demand to nearly 80,000 MW at 9:00 am on Monday morning, while the committed capacity stands at 81,160 MW. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday morning, with reserves around 1,500 MW.
ERCOT emphasizes that if reserves fall below 2,500 MW and are not expected to recover within 30 minutes, emergency operations will be initiated. In the event that operating reserves dip below 1,500 MW, ERCOT will instruct local electric utilities to implement rolling blackouts. The state is forecasted to be close to this threshold on both Monday and Tuesday mornings.
In response to the heightened risk of blackouts, ERCOT has issued a Weather Watch from January 14–17, citing the forecasted extreme cold weather, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves across the ERCOT region. Despite these concerns, grid conditions are expected to remain normal.
As Texas residents brace for possible blackouts on Monday, ERCOT assures them that updates on any conservation appeals will be provided throughout the next several days.
